Dispatches from Volcano: Saturday, April 25, 2020. A bit of a kerfuffle ensued...

Brrrr yesterday and last night. Fickle weathers; a few days being lulled by soft breezes and warm sun, then... a front rolls through bringing chill air and ʻōhiʻa-swaying winds. We are thankful for being here, no matter outside forces beyond our control. Lehua bloom continues to increase. Itʻs kinda fun, driving down and up the hill to nūnī PT, observing elevational influences on bloomings and unfurlings. Ma kai, lehua are gangbusters, while here theyʻre maybe at 25%. Same with pepeʻe hāpuʻu, the coiled up fresh fronds in the process of unfurling. Thatʻll be a Topic-Coming-Soon, as the bright-greening of our rain forests evolve.

In Hilo, thereʻs an extravagance of several of these:

Iʻm at a loss to accurately name or describe the color, other than perhaps peachy-salmon. Ish. We enjoy many shades of yellow in peoples yards, because lehua mamo, the yellow ones, are lots less common than reds. But this... these in-between ones, in my view, are even more special.

Now... Kerfuffle:

According to dictionary.com, a kerfuffle is a noun used informally, of British origin:

a commotion or fuss, especially one caused by conflicting views

Attentive readers of TheNews may have heard/read that the works of Pelehonuamea in 2018 were apparently not caused by her, but rather were initiated by Lono-of-the-rains, and Kāne-of-the-groundwaters. This newsflash by way of an unequivocal headline:

Note, dear readers, that is does not include qualifiers such as: Perhaps, or May Have Been, etc. Itʻs a flat-out Statement of Fact: Extreme Rainfall Triggered...

Now you can likely imagine my consternation, headshakings, and mutterings... This little blog was started because I couldnʻt bear inaccurate reporting. And no, Iʻm not a geophysicist, but I believe that I PayAttention. And as I wode/waded through the very very dense scientificana of the paper, it didnʻt make sense. Well...maybe a teeny tiny bit did: weight of rainwater on flank of mauna Kīlauea mayhaps tilted the ma kai portion of the lower East Rift Zone toward the sea, opening the rift and making room for the dike/dyke... But...naahhh...

We get plenny rain. All over, and not infrequently. 12", 24", 36" in 24 hours...yup. Been here, seen (and heard) that. Why just this year, the first 12 days of January, we had 30" up here. But no eruption...

And the part about "lack of precursory summit inflation"??? Of COURSE had inflation: the active lua on the floor of Halemaʻumaʻu overflowed several times, and when it did, the rim of that lua increased in height, requiring even more pressure for the magma column to rise and overflow. And...the floor of Puʻuʻōʻō was rising/inflating so fast scientists curtailed in-the-crater field work.

OK. Take a breath, Bob... Letʻs see what the good folks at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) have to say. Following is text of their 042320 Volcano Watch article, and accompanying graphic, and a link to the actual piece. Read. Learn. Enjoy.

Plot of ground motion as recorded by a GPS station at Kīlauea's summit (red) and the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent (blue) for the 8 months leading up to the 2018 eruption. Note the sharp increase indicating pressurization beginning in March. Image shows an aerial view of Halema‘uma‘u crater and the actively overflowing lava lake on April 23, 2018. USGS Photo.

Volcano Watch 042320 Increasing magma pressure most likely culprit in triggering the 2018 Kīlauea eruption. Please note the "most likely" part. I learned decades ago to couch phrases with care. Visitors often asked "When will the eruption end?". Iʻd answer, sometimes to their consternation, "When it ends". Then Iʻd explain whims and vagaries, etc.

So. GoRead:

I have a pdf of the kerfuffle-causing article, and will happily email to you, because I couldnʻt find it online yet...

And The Other Side:

Nature Journal Paper Dismissed

and in SCIENCE Magazine

Iʻll be summarizing my thoughts about The Three Months, the after-effects, etc., in a post next week Thursday, April 30, the second anniversary of the onset of events.

And before I go, I HAD to share this. Thanks, gh for the laughs. Now if the current occupant of Hale Kea were a rational, sentient, ept (as opposed to inept) being, I might quibble, but I hope Iʻd have the grace and courtesy to be respectful of that persons decisions. Now??? Not so much. And if any of you, dear, dear readers, plan to vote for him in the Fall, I beg, beseech, adjure, entreat, implore, call upon, and exhort you: Donʻt Do That!!! We, all of us, must absolutely vote. BUT NOT FOR HIM!!!